Electronics companies are getting gridlocked by coronavirus lockdowns

For anyone in the hardware business, the last month has brought some scary numbers. Computer shipments from China to the US dropped 64 percent in the first two weeks of March, according to a report from S&P Global Market Intelligence. Monitor and TV imports dropped 66 percent, against a broader 45 percent drop in total Chinese imports. Some analysts are already worried that the next round of iPhones could be delayed (although Apple insists the disruptions will be temporary).

This, roughly, is what happens when China closes its factories. The country began its coronavirus shutdown in earnest at the end of February, extending the Lunar New Year holiday until February 5th and placing severe public health restrictions. But while the strictest lockdown was limited to Hubei province, the broader restrictions have rippled through the entire country. Bloomberg reports that Foxconn was at reduced capacity for most of February and is hoping to get back to full strength by the end of the month.

But with so many other manufacturers still scaling up, the result is a huge disruption in the supply chain. It’s made worse by the structure of modern manufacturing, as The Verge detailed earlier this month. For decades, hardware companies have been cutting costs by reducing stockpiles, trying to minimize the time a product spends sitting around at any stage of the process. That magnifies the impact of any disruption to the system, whether the component can’t be built because the workers are locked down or can’t be shipped as fast because of travel restrictions.

We should be clear: the important crisis is still the public health crisis, and backing off on social distancing will make all of this worse, not better. The ongoing financial collapse is also going to mean less money to spend on computers, which could be an even bigger problem for companies. But in the short term, companies are going to have trouble getting products into stores — and if you’re trying to get repair parts, you might be in for a rough time.