Complacency, Not Panic, Is the Real Danger

Only a small minority of people panic under threat, research shows. Far more don’t take the threat seriously enough. The sight of empty grocery shelves — widely shared on social media — combined with the dread of an invisible threat seem a perfect recipe for widespread hysteria. But, so far, despite mixed messages from government officials and shortages of tests and hospital capacity, there is little evidence of widespread panic.

In fact, research into decision-making under threat suggests that concerns about looming mass panic are badly misplaced, according to Ido Erev, a professor of behavioral science and management at Technion-Israel Institute of Technology, in Haifa, Israel. Dr. Erev is president of the European Association for Decision Making. The following conversation has been edited slightly for clarity.

When does precaution turn to panic in the midst of a threat? What we find is that there are large differences between individuals in terms of how they respond to threats like this. Everyone tends to overreact somewhat at the beginning. But then, a little experience reverses that sense in most people, and they begin to believe that “it won’t happen to me.

” A minority of people — 10 to 30 percent, depending on the situation — continues to overestimate the risk and behave more hysterically, or overreact. These are the people who are causing much of the rush on supplies like toilet paper and emptying the shelves. This is a problem, of course, because it can prompt the same kind of behavior in others. But the important point is that this is a minority.

Most people have the opposite problem. So the overall effect, over time, is more complacency than panic? Yes.

“I returned to Israel from sabbatical in the U.”

S. during the second Intifada, in 2002. Officials were saying that it was extremely dangerous to be in coffee shops, and my wife and I bought a fancy coffee maker and stayed inside. For a few days, the coffee shops were nearly empty, and the tourists certainly stopped coming.